IMF: Global Growth Steady, Disinflation Slowing

IMF: Global economic growth is stable despite easing deflation and increased political uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, painting a picture of the global economy navigating a complex environment of ongoing challenges and emerging uncertainties.

In the report, the IMF maintained its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 and 2025, projecting steady growth of 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively. The forecast is slightly higher than the forecast in April 2024, reflecting a modest upward revision in developed economies.

Cautious optimism amid uncertainty

The IMF’s cautiously optimistic outlook is based on the expectation that the war in Ukraine and ongoing supply chain disruptions will continue to weigh on economic activity, but that these headwinds will ease over time. In addition, the IMF expects central banks’ monetary tightening to help contain inflation, although downside risks remain elevated.

Highlights from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update

Global growth is expected to remain stable in 2024 and 2025, but at a slower pace than in 2021.

Inflation is expected to ease gradually, but risks to the inflation outlook remain elevated.Central

 banks’ monetary tightening is likely to continue, but policymakers should proceed with caution to avoid a recession.

Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions pose ongoing challenges to the global economy.

Overcoming challenges and uncertainties

Despite the uncertainties, the IMF maintains its cautiously optimistic forecast for the global economy. The organization highlights the resilience of the global economy so far and the potential for growth in the medium term. However, the IMF stressed that policymakers must be cautious in dealing with the challenges and uncertainties ahead.

Policymakers face a delicate balancing act

Central banks face a delicate balancing act as they try to fight inflation without slowing economic growth. The IMF warned against overly aggressive monetary tightening, which could trigger a recession. Instead, policymakers should take a more cautious approach and carefully calibrate their actions according to the changing economic situation.

Addressing Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Disruptions

Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions remain a significant threat to global economic stability. The IMF calls on policymakers to work together to address these challenges and promote dialogue and cooperation to mitigate their impact on the global economy.


The global economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, with a complex interplay of factors affecting the economic outlook. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook Update provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities ahead and highlights the need for policymakers to navigate this uncertain landscape with caution and foresight.

Other factors to take into account:

According to the IMF's projections, there will be disparities in growth and inflation rates among different regions. Advanced economies are anticipated to have slower growth compared to emerging market and developing economies. Additionally, inflation rates are expected to be higher in emerging market and developing economies.

Commodity prices, specifically energy and food prices, continue to fluctuate, creating a substantial threat to the global economy. The International Monetary Fund emphasizes the importance of closely observing commodity markets and the potential consequences for inflation and economic performance.

Fiscal policy has the potential to act as a supportive force alongside monetary policy in promoting economic stability and growth. The IMF places great emphasis on the significance of appropriately calibrated fiscal measures that foster growth while avoiding the exacerbation of inflationary forces.