The Big Seven: Will the rest of the stock market surge in 2024?
2023 was a record year for the stock market: the S&P 500 rose more than
23%. However, profits are not evenly distributed. A handful of large-cap tech
stocks, known as the "Big Seven," accounted for most of the market's gains.
The Big Seven are Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia
and Tesla. These companies are all leaders in their respective industries and
have benefited from the rapid growth of the digital economy.
In 2023, the Big Seven accounted for more than 50% of the S&P 500's gains.
Of particular note is Apple, whose stock price rose more than 30%.
However, other parts of the stock market underperformed. Gains in the S&P
500 were largely concentrated in the technology sector. Other sectors such as
energy, industrials and consumer discretionary lagged.
So what does this mean for the stock market in 2024? Will the Big Seven
continue to dominate, or will the rest of the market eventually catch up?
There are a number of factors that could impact the stock market in 2024. A
key factor is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is
expected to continue raising interest rates to combat inflation. This could
put pressure on the stock market, as higher interest rates make stocks more
expensive.
Another factor to watch is the global economy. The global economy faces many
challenges, including the war in Ukraine, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and
rising inflation. These challenges could lead to slower economic growth,
which could also weigh on stock markets.
Despite these challenges, there are some reasons to be optimistic about
stocks in 2024. The U.S. economy is still growing, and corporate profits are
expected to continue to grow gradually in 2024, which could help mitigate
the impact of rising interest rates on the stock market.
Overall, it's too early to determine whether the Big Seven will continue to
dominate the stock market in 2024. However, there are a number of factors
that could lead to a more even market distribution in the coming year.
Here are some factors that could help other stock markets catch up to the
Big Seven in 2024:
The growth of the digital economy is slowing down. If growth in the digital
economy slows, it could lead to slower earnings growth for the Big Seven.
This could create opportunities for other stocks to outperform.
Shift from growth stocks to value stocks. Value stocks are generally cheaper
than growth stocks, but have underperformed in recent years. However, some
investors believe value stocks could outperform growth stocks by 2024.
The global economy is stronger. A stronger global economy is likely to lead
to faster earnings growth for companies across all industries, including the
Big Seven.
Of course, it is also possible that the Seven Heroes will continue to
dominate the stock market in 2024. If the global economy continues to grow
at a healthy pace and the Federal Reserve gradually raises interest rates,
the Big Seven may continue to deliver strong returns.
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